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Language：Japanese   Publisher：SOCIETY OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, JAPAN  

Global cropland requirements have been projected from 2000 to 2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The future of global cropland requirements will depend on both global food requirements and the productivity of crops. Global food requirements are estimated so that the proportion of undernourished in total population may be below 2.5 % throughout the projection period for each of 184 countries. With regard to the productivity of crops, several scenarios of future technological changes are modeled to narrow the gap between actual yield and land potential evaluated in the global agro-ecological zones (GAEZ) study. The following results have been shown from these analyses. 1) The primary factor of variation in future global cropland requirements will be the change of world population. 2) Global cropland requirements will amount to a maximum of 2, 669 million ha by 2100 at the level of 12 billion world population. 3) There exists sufficient suitable land for agricultural production in the world, which is much larger than the maximum requirements of cropland. However, it is thought that the large expansion of cropland will be subject to restraints by the preservation of forest land and competition with other land uses. 4) Crop yields can be technologically increased to about 1.5 times as much as those of existing high yield varieties by the introduction of super-high yielding crops. Consequently, global cropland requirements may be sharply decreased. However, it is expected that steep increase in crop yields, which have been attained in the second half of the 20th century, will not be realized in this century due to economical restrictions, climate change, and the finite nature of fresh water resources. 5) The number of world population which can be fed within the cropland area in 2000 (1, 533 million ha) is approximately 8 billion assuming that future average annual increases in crop productivity equal to the half of those attained between 1961 and 2004. Moreover, in the severest case that crop yields do not increase from 2000 levels, only 7 billion people can be supported. Key Words: emissions scenarios; IPCC SRES; food requirement; cropland requirement; land use.

DOI： 10.11353/sesj1988.22.73

CiNii Books

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Other Link： http://agriknowledge.affrc.go.jp/RN/2010771801

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Language：Japanese   Publisher：SOCIETY OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, JAPAN  

National food requirements have been estimated covering 184 countries from 1990 to 2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) for providing information help to evaluate the impact of climate change on food security. Projections are carried out for ninety-six food items in FAO' food balance sheets (FBS) so that the proportion of undernourished in total population may be below 2.5 % throughout the projection period. These estimations are nearly equivalent to supply for domestic utilization in FBS, which is comprised of utilization elements such as feed, seed, food manufacture, waste and final use. Consequently, world cereal requirements in SRES Al and B1 scenarios reach 3, 406 million tones and 3, 426 million tonnes in 2050 respectively and decrease to 2, 650 million tonnes in 2100. On the contrary, those in A2 and B2 scenarios continue to increase to 3, 908 million tones and 3, 740 million tonnes in 2050 and reach 6, 010 million tones and 4, 030 million tonnes in 2100. A number of today's food-insecure countries seem likely to have overcome their food access problems by 2030, with much of the remaining food security problem concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa due to low person's income levels and rapid increases in food requirements.

DOI： 10.11353/sesj1988.21.63

CiNii Books

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Other Link： https://jlc.jst.go.jp/DN/JALC/00308763041?from=CiNii

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Country：Japan

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