Updated on 2026/04/01

写真a

 
NAKAMARU MAYUKO
 
Organization
School of Environment and Society Professor
Title
Professor
External link

Degree

  • 博士(理学) ( 九州大学 )

Research Interests

  • Social simulation, Human behavior and evolution, Mathematical biology

Research Areas

  • Life Science / Ecology and environment

Education

  • Kyushu University   Graduate School, Division of Natural Science

    1996.4 - 1998.10

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Research History

  • Institute of Science Tokyo   Professor

    2024.10

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  • Tokyo Institute of Technology   School of Environment and Society   Professor

    2023.4 - 2024.9

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  • Tokyo Institute of Technology   School of Environment and Society   Associate Professor

    2016.4 - 2023.3

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  • Tokyo Institute of Technology   Graduate School of Decision Science and Technology, Department of Value and Decision Science   Associate Professor

    2009.4 - 2016.3

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  • Tokyo Institute of Technology   Department of Value and Secision Science   Associate Professor

    2005.2 - 2009.3

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  • Shizuoka University   工学部   助手

    2000 - 2005

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  • 科学技術振興事業団   CREST研究員

    1998 - 2000

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Professional Memberships

Committee Memberships

  • 日本数理生物学会   事務局補佐  

    2019.1   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  • 日本数理生物学会   運営委員  

    2019   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  •   科学研究費委員会専門委員  

    2017.12 - 2018.11   

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    Committee type:Other

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  • 日本学術会議   連携会員  

    2017.10   

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    Committee type:Other

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  • 日本人間行動進化学会   理事  

    2016.1   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  • 日本人間行動進化学会   常務理事  

    2008.1 - 2015.12   

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  • 日本人間行動進化学会   ジャーナル副編集長  

    2008 - 2011   

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  • 日本進化学会   男女共同参画委員会担当  

    2008 - 2010   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  • 日本数理生物学会   運営委員  

    2007 - 2009   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  • 日本数理生物学会   事務局 幹事  

    2007 - 2008   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  • 日本生態学会   日本生態学会誌編集委員  

    2005 - 2007   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  • 日本生態学会   保全生態学研究の編集委員  

    2004 - 2006   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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Papers

  • Link dissolution outperforms link formation in promoting cooperation in social dilemmas Reviewed

    Yen-Sheng Chiang, Mayuko Nakamaru, Chih-Ya Shen

    Social Science Research   136   103342 - 103342   2026.5

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Elsevier BV  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2026.103342

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  • The evolution of cooperation in the division of labor on generalized networks with a single output Reviewed

    Md Sams Afif Nirjhor, Fangyue Liu, Mayuko Nakamaru

    Journal of Theoretical Biology   112408 - 112408   2026.2

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2026.112408

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  • Maintaining Private and Public Facilities: Theory and Experiment

    Mayuko Nakamaru, Takaaki Ohkawauchi, Rei Okawa, Koki Oikawa, Yuto Otani, Hiroo Sasaki, Junyi Shen, Koichi Takase, Hirofumi Yamamura, Takehiko Yamato

    Discussion Paper Series, Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University   DP2024-35   2024.11

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  • 儀礼経済の複雑性を捉えるためにーミクロネシアにおける文化人類学と数理生物学の協働の試み

    河野正治, 中丸麻由子

    日本オセアニア学会NEWS LETTER   138   30 - 41   2024

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    Publishing type:Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution)  

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  • The evolution of cooperation in the unidirectional division of labour on a tree network Reviewed

    Md Sams Afif Nirjhor, Mayuko Nakamaru

    Royal Society Open Science   10 ( 11 )   2023.11

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    Authorship:Last author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:The Royal Society  

    Division of labour on complex networks is rarely investigated using evolutionary game theory. We investigate a division of labour where divided roles are assigned to groups on the nodes of a general unidirectional finite tree graph network. From the network’s original node, a task flows and is divided along the branches. A player is randomly selected in each group of cooperators and defectors, who receives a benefit from a cooperator in the upstream group and a part of the task. A cooperator completes their part by paying a cost and then passing it downstream until the entire task is completed. Defectors do not do anything and the division of labour stops, causing all groups to suffer losses due to the incomplete task. We develop a novel method to analyse the local stability in this general tree. We discover that not the benefits but the costs of the cooperation influence the evolution of cooperation, and defections in groups that are directly related to that group’s task cause damage to players in that group. We introduce two sanction systems, one of which induces the evolution of cooperation more than the system without sanctions, and promote the coexistence of cooperator and defector groups.

    DOI: 10.1098/rsos.230830

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    Other Link: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsos.230830

  • The evolution of cooperation in the unidirectional linear division of labour of finite roles Reviewed

    Md Sams Afif Nirjhor, Mayuko Nakamaru

    Royal Society Open Science   10 ( 3 )   2023.3

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    Evolution of cooperation is a puzzle in evolutionary biology and social sciences. Previous studies assumed that players are equal and have symmetric relationships. In our society, players are in different roles, have an asymmetric relationship and cooperate together. We focused on the linear division of labour in a unidirectional chain that has finite roles, each of which is assigned to one group with cooperators and defectors. A cooperator in an upstream group produces and modifies a product, paying a cost of cooperation, and hands it to a player in a downstream group who obtains the benefit from the product. If players in all roles cooperate, a final product can be completed. However, if a player in a group chooses defection, the division of labour stops, the final product cannot be completed and all players in all roles suffer damage. By using the replicator equations of the asymmetric game, we investigate which sanction system promotes the evolution of cooperation in the division of labour. We find that not the benefit of the product but the cost of cooperation matters to the evolutionary dynamics and that the probability of finding a defector determines which sanction system promotes the evolution of cooperation.

    DOI: 10.1098/rsos.220856

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    Other Link: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsos.220856

  • Heuristics Facilitates the Evolution of Transitive Inference and Social Hierarchy in a Large Group Reviewed

    Kazuto Doi, Mayuko Nakamaru

    Acta Biotheoretica   71 ( 2 )   2023.3

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    Abstract

    Transitive inference (TI) refers to social cognition that facilitates the discernment of unknown relationships between individuals using known relationships. It is extensively reported that TI evolves in animals living in a large group because TI could assess relative rank without deducing all dyadic relationships, which averts costly fights. The relationships in a large group become so complex that social cognition may not be developed adequately to handle such complexity. If members apply TI to all possible members in the group, TI requires extremely highly developed cognitive abilities especially in a large group. Instead of developing cognitive abilities significantly, animals may apply simplified TI we call reference TI in this study as heuristic approaches. The reference TI allows members to recognize and remember social interactions only among a set of reference members rather than all potential members. Our study assumes that information processes in the reference TI comprises (1) the number of reference members based on which individuals infer transitively, (2) the number of reference members shared by the same strategists, and (3) memory capacity. We examined how information processes evolve in a large group using evolutionary simulations in the hawk–dove game. Information processes with almost any numbers of reference members could evolve in a large group as long as the numbers of shared reference member are high because information from the others’ experiences is shared. TI dominates immediate inference, which assesses relative rank on direct interactions, because TI could establish social hierarchy more rapidly applying information from others’ experiences.

    DOI: 10.1007/s10441-023-09459-5

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    Other Link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10441-023-09459-5/fulltext.html

  • Ecological features benefiting sustainable harvesters in socio-ecological systems: a case study of Swiftlets in Malaysia Reviewed

    Nakamaru Mayuko, Ayumi Onuma

    Ecological Applications   31 ( 7 )   2021.10

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    DOI: 10.1002/EAP.2413

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    Other Link: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/eap.2413

  • 制度や慣習を進化ゲーム理論で解析する

    中丸麻由子

    産研アカデミック・フォーラム、早稲田大学産業経営研究所   27   40 - 51   2021

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  • Preservation of the value of rice paddy fields: Investigating how to prevent farmers from abandoning the fields by means of evolutionary game theory Reviewed

    Joung Hun Lee, Ryo Yamaguchi, Hiroyuki Yokomizo, Mayuko Nakamaru

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   495   2020.6

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110247

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  • The coevolution of transitive inference and memory capacity in the hawk–dove game Reviewed

    Kazuto Doi, Mayuko Nakamaru

    Journal of Theoretical Biology   456   91 - 107   2018.11

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.08.002

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  • Reciprocity and exclusion in informal financial institutions: An experimental study of rotating savings and credit associations Reviewed

    Shimpei Koike, Mayuko Nakamaru, Tokinao Otaka, Hajime Shimao, Ken-Ichi Shimomura, Takehiko Yamato

    PLOS ONE   13 ( 8 )   e0202878   2018.8

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    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0202878

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  • Large group size promotes the evolution of cooperation in the mutual-aid game Reviewed

    Hayato Shimura, Mayuko Nakamaru

    Journal of Theoretical Biology   451   46 - 56   2018.8

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    Authorship:Last author, Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Academic Press  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.04.019

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  • The effect of sanctions on the evolution of cooperation in linear division of labor Reviewed

    Mayuko Nakamaru, Hayato Shimura, Yoko Kitakaji, Susumu Ohnuma

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   437   79 - 91   2018.1

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.10.007

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  • Ecological conditions favoring non-dispersal under environmental disturbance in the colony-based mode Invited Reviewed

    Nakamaru Mayuko

    Japanese Journal of Ecology (Otsu)   2017

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  • A model for gossip-mediated evolution of altruism with various types of false information by speakers and assessment by listeners Reviewed

    Motohide Seki, Mayuko Nakamaru

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   407   90 - 105   2016.10

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.07.001

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  • Evolution of costly explicit memory and cumulative culture Reviewed

    Mayuko Nakamaru

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   399   71 - 83   2016.6

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.03.014

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  • The Effect of Ostracism and Optional Participation on the Evolution of Cooperation in the Voluntary Public Goods Game Reviewed

    Mayuko Nakamaru, Akira Yokoyama

    PLOS ONE   9 ( 9 )   e108423   2014.9

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    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0108423

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  • How intergenerational interaction affects attitude-behavior inconsistency Reviewed

    Takuya Sekiguchi, Mayuko Nakamaru

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   346   54 - 66   2014.4

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.12.022

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  • Ecological Conditions Favoring Budding in Colonial Organisms under Environmental Disturbance Reviewed

    Mayuko Nakamaru, Takenori Takada, Akiko Ohtsuki, Sayaki U. Suzuki, Kanan Miura, Kazuki Tsuji

    PLOS ONE   9 ( 3 )   e91210   2014.3

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    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091210

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  • Strict or Graduated Punishment? Effect of Punishment Strictness on the Evolution of Cooperation in Continuous Public Goods Games Reviewed

    Hajime Shimao, Mayuko Nakamaru

    PLOS ONE   8 ( 3 )   e59894   2013.3

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    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0059894

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  • 意思決定に関する進化シミュレーション Reviewed

    中丸 麻由子, 関口 卓也, 島尾 堯

    シミュレーション&ゲーミング   21 ( 1 )   39 - 51   2011.6

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  • How inconsistency between attitude and behavior persists through cultural transmission Reviewed

    Takuya Sekiguchi, Mayuko Nakamaru

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   271 ( 1 )   124 - 135   2011.2

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.11.044

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  • The evolution of altruism by costly punishment in lattice-structured populations: score-dependent viability versus score-dependent fertility Reviewed

    Nakamaru Mayuko, Iwasa Yoh

    Evolutionary Ecology Research   2011

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    DOI: 10.1016/J.JMMM.2010.09.056

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  • Anti-social punishment can prevent the co-evolution of punishment and cooperation Reviewed

    David G. Rand, Joseph J. Armao, Mayuko Nakamaru, Hisashi Ohtsuki

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   265 ( 4 )   624 - 632   2010.8

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.06.010

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  • Evolution of cooperation in rotating indivisible goods game Reviewed

    Shimpei Koike, Mayuko Nakamaru, Masahiro Tsujimoto

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   264 ( 1 )   143 - 153   2010.5

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.12.030

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  • The Sometimes Evitable Route to Conservatism and Persuasiveness A Reply to Xue and Costopoulos

    Nakamaru Mayuko

    Current Anthropology   2010

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    DOI: 10.1086/651259

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  • Runaway selection for cooperation and strict-and-severe punishment Reviewed

    Mayuko Nakamaru, Ulf Dieckmann

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   257 ( 1 )   1 - 8   2009.3

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.09.004

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  • Effect of the presence of empty sites on the evolution of cooperation by costly punishment in spatial games Reviewed

    Takuya Sekiguchi, Mayuko Nakamaru

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   256 ( 2 )   297 - 304   2009.1

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.09.025

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  • Does disturbance favor dispersal? An analysis of ant migration using the colony-based lattice model Reviewed

    Mayuko Nakamaru, Yayol Beppu, Kazuki Tsuji

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   248 ( 2 )   288 - 300   2007.9

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.05.012

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  • Corrigendum to “The coevolution of altruism and punishment: Role of the selfish punisher” Reviewed

    Nakamaru Mayuko

    Journal of Theoretical Biology   245 ( 1 )   193 - 196   2007.3

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    DOI: 10.1016/J.JTBI.2006.12.013

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  • The coevolution of altruism and punishment: Role of the selfish punisher Reviewed

    M Nakamaru, Y Iwasa

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   240 ( 3 )   475 - 488   2006.6

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.10.011

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  • Lattice models in ecology and social sciences Reviewed

    M Nakamaru

    ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH   21 ( 3 )   364 - 369   2006.5

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1007/s11284-006-0163-0

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  • Cultural evolution develops its own rules - The rise of conservatism and persuasion

    Nakamaru Mayuko

    Current Anthropology   2006

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    Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1086/508696

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  • The evolution of altruism by costly punishment in lattice-structured populations: score-dependent viability versus score-dependent fertility Reviewed

    Nakamaru M, Iwasa Y

    Evolutionary Ecology Research   7 ( 6 )   853 - 870   2005

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  • Spread of two linked social norms on complex interaction networks Reviewed

    M Nakamaru, SA Levin

    JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY   230 ( 1 )   57 - 64   2004.9

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    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.04.028

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  • Evolution of rumours that discriminate lying defectors Reviewed

    Nakamaru Mayuko, Kawata Masakado

    Evolutionary Ecology Research   2004

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  • Extinction risk to bird populations caused by DDT exposure Reviewed

    M Nakamaru, Y Iwasa, J Nakanishi

    CHEMOSPHERE   53 ( 4 )   377 - 387   2003.10

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    DOI: 10.1016/S0045-6535(03)00010.9

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  • Can transitive inference evolve in animals playing the hawk–dove game? Reviewed

    Mayuko Nakamaru, Akira Sasaki

    Journal of Theoretical Biology   222 ( 4 )   461 - 470   2003.6

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    DOI: 10.1016/s0022-5193(03)00059-6

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  • Extinction risk to herring gull populations from DDT exposure (vol 21, pg 195, 2002)

    Nakamaru Mayuko, Iwasa Yoh, Nakanishi Junko

    Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry   2003

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  • Ecological Risk of DDT - A Case Study of Biomagnification Causing Extinction Risk of Herring Gull in Long Island

    NAKAMARU Mayuko, IWASA Yoh, NAKANISHI Junko

    ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE   14 ( 1 )   61 - 72   2001.1

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:SOCIETY OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, JAPAN  

    A new method to evaluate the extinction risk of natural populations enhanced by exposure to toxic chemicals was proposed. The extinction risk of herring gull (Larus argentatus) in Long Island, NY caused by ∑DDT (p, p'-Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and its metabolites (called ∑DDT) was calculated. As a top predator, herring gull suffers severely by the biologically concentrated DDT. The canonical model is adopted to evaluate the mean extinction time. The intrinsic rate of growth r is estimated from the doubling time of a fast growing population; the intensity of environmental fluctuation 6e2 is from the magnitude of population size fluctuation. Based on an age-structured matrix model with biological concentration factor and the decrease in fertility caused by the exposure to ∑DDT, we can estimate the decrease in the mean extinction time of herring gull population for different concentration of ∑DDT in the environment. Risk equivalent, defined as the fraction of habitat loss that causes the same decrease in the mean extinction time as a given exposure to toxic chemicals, is very useful in evaluating the ecological risk and in management of toxic chemicals.

    DOI: 10.11353/sesj1988.14.61

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    Other Link: https://jlc.jst.go.jp/DN/JALC/00071581323?from=CiNii

  • Competition by Allelopathy Proceeds in Traveling Waves: Colicin-Immune Strain Aids Colicin-Sensitive Strain Reviewed

    M. Nakamaru, Y. Iwasa

    Theoretical Population Biology   57 ( 2 )   131 - 144   2000.3

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    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Elsevier BV  

    DOI: 10.1006/tpbi.1999.1448

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  • Estimate of population extinction risk and its application to ecological risk management Reviewed

    Nakamaru Mayuko

    Population Ecology   42 ( 1 )   73 - 80   2000

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    Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1007/S101440050011

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  • Extinction Risk to Herring Gull populations from DDT Exposure Reviewed

    Nakamaru, M., Iwasa, Y., Nakanishi, J.

    Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry   21 ( 1 )   195 - 202   2000

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    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author   Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1002/etc.5620210127

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  • Allelopathy of bacteria in a lattice population: Competition between colicin-sensitive and colicin-producing strains Reviewed

    Yoh Iwasa, Mayuko Nakamaru, Simon a. Levin

    Evolutionary Ecology   12 ( 7 )   785 - 802   1998.10

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    Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLC  

    DOI: 10.1023/a:1006590431483

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  • Score-dependent Fertility Model for the Evolution of Cooperation in a Lattice Reviewed

    Mayuko Nakamaru, Hajime Nogami, Yoh Iwasa

    Journal of Theoretical Biology   194 ( 1 )   101 - 124   1998.9

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    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Elsevier BV  

    DOI: 10.1006/jtbi.1998.0750

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  • The evolution of social interaction in lattice models. Reviewed

    Nakamaru M, Matsuda H, Iwasa Y

    Sociological Theory and Methods   12 ( 2 )   149 - 162   1998

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  • Erratum : The Evolution of Social Interaction in Lattice Models

    NAKAMARU Mayuko, MATSUDA Hiroyuki, IWASA Yoh

    Sociological Theory and Methods   13 ( 1 )   133_e2 - 133_e2   1998

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:Japanese Association For Mathematical Sociology  

    DOI: 10.11218/ojjams.13.133_e2

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  • The Evolution of Cooperation in a Lattice-Structured Population Reviewed

    M. Nakamaru, H. Matsuda, Y. Iwasa

    Journal of Theoretical Biology   184 ( 1 )   65 - 81   1997.1

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    DOI: 10.1006/jtbi.1996.0243

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Books

  • 心理学が描くリスクの世界Advanced : 行動的意思決定の展開

    増田, 真也, 広田, すみれ, 坂上, 貴之( Role: ContributorII-5節 進化ゲーム理論)

    慶應義塾大学出版会  2023.10  ( ISBN:9784766428667

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    Total pages:vi, 293p   Language:Japanese  

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  • Trust and Credit in Organizations and Institutions

    Mayuko Nakamaru( Role: Sole author)

    Springer nature  2022.11 

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  • 数理社会学事典 = Encyclopedia of mathematical sociology

    数理社会学会数理社会学事典刊行委員会( Role: Contributor4-8 スパイトとゲームと空間構造)

    丸善出版  2022.8  ( ISBN:9784621306659

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    Total pages:xvi, 760p   Language:Japanese  

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  • 進化でわかる人間行動の事典

    小田, 亮, 橋彌, 和秀, 大坪, 庸介, 平石, 界( Role: Contributor噂をする)

    [朝倉書店]  2021.6 

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    Total pages:1オンラインリソース (viii, 307p)   Language:Japanese  

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  • 社会の仕組みを信用から理解する : 協力進化の数理

    中丸, 麻由子, 巌佐, 庸

    共立出版  2020.10  ( ISBN:9784320009332

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    Total pages:xvii, 190p   Language:Japanese  

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  • 児童心理学の進歩

    日本児童研究所, 山田, 洋子, 橋口, 英俊, 湯川, 良三, 佐々木, 正人, 松沢, 哲郎, 内田, 伸子, 近藤, 邦夫, 高橋, 恵子, 湯川, 隆子, 稲垣, 佳世子, 平木, 典子, 氏家, 達夫, 斉藤, こずゑ, 河合, 優年, 山, 祐嗣, 高橋, 知音, 藤田, 博康( Role: Contributor人間行動進化学と分子生物学(帯刀益夫・著「遺伝子と文化選択」への書評))

    金子書房  2017  ( ISBN:4760899324

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    Total pages:冊   Language:Japanese  

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  • New Dictionary of the History of Ideas

    ( Role: Joint translatorDiffusion, Culture)

    2016.1  ( ISBN:9784621089613

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    Total pages:10冊   Language:Japanese  

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  • 無縁社会のゆくえ : 人々の絆はなぜなくなるの?

    高木 修, 竹村 和久, 日本心理学会

    誠信書房  2015  ( ISBN:9784414311136

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  • 「社会の決まり」はどのように決まるか

    亀田 達也, 西條 辰義, 巌佐 庸, 中丸 麻由子, 小池 心平, 高橋 伸幸, 稲葉 美里, 真島 理恵, 豊川 航, 金 惠璘

    勁草書房  2015  ( ISBN:9784326349166

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  • 実験が切り開く21世紀の社会科学

    西條 辰義, 清水 和巳, 山岸 俊男, 竹村 和久, 兎内 祥子, 瀋 俊毅, 坂上 貴之, 神 信人, 高橋 伸幸, 丹野 貴行, 磯辺 剛彦, 小笠原 宏, 中丸 麻由子, 西村 直子, 草川 孝夫, 肥前 洋一, 井手 弘子, 加藤 淳子, 神作 憲司

    勁草書房  2014  ( ISBN:9784326349111

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  • 進化するシステム

    中丸 麻由子

    ミネルヴァ書房  2011  ( ISBN:9784623059294

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  • 進化のダイナミクス : 生命の謎を解き明かす方程式

    Nowak, M. A. (Martin A.), 竹内, 康博, 佐藤, 一憲, 巌佐, 庸, 中岡, 慎治( Role: Joint translator第5章 ジレンマの虜になった人達)

    共立出版  2008.2  ( ISBN:9784320056657

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    Total pages:xii, 333p   Language:Japanese  

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  • 微生物の力学系 : ケモスタット理論を通して

    Smith, Hal L., Waltman, Paul E., 竹内, 康博( Role: Joint translator10章新しい方向性、11章未解決の問題)

    日本評論社  2004.2  ( ISBN:4535784019

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    Total pages:xiii, 350p   Language:Japanese  

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  • 進化ゲームとその展開

    佐伯 胖, 亀田 達也, 神取 道宏, Rapoport Amnon, 大坪 庸介, 山村 則男, 太田 勝造, 竹澤 正哲, 亀田 達也, 中丸 麻由子, 長谷川 真理子, 平石 界, 内井 惣七, 山岸 俊男, 清成 透子, 谷田 林士, 森平 菜津子

    共立出版  2002  ( ISBN:4320094395

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MISC

  • 慣習・制度下でのコモンズの維持システムの進化ゲーム解析

    中丸麻由子, 小池心平, 辻本昌弘

    日本生態学会大会講演要旨集   57th   212   2010.3

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  • The effect of disturbance on the dispersal strategy in the colony-based lattice model

    Nakamaru Mayuko, Beppu Yayoi, Tuji Kazuki

    Abstracts of the Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of Japan   51 ( 0 )   775 - 775   2004

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    Publishing type:Meeting report   Publisher:ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN  

    環境攪乱下では長距離分散戦略はリスク回避が可能となるため進化的に有利であると言われている。しかしアリの場合、攪乱が頻繁に起こる場所には分散型ではない多女王性の種(アシナガキアリ、ツヤオオズアリなどの放浪種)が生息し、逆に攪乱が頻繁でない環境に拡散タイプの単女王性の種(オニコツノアリ、アズマオオズアリなどの非放浪種)が生息している。これはどのような要因で生じるのであろうか。<br><br>長距離分散戦略(L戦略)と短距離分散戦略(S戦略)の空間を巡る競争を仮定した。空間構造として格子モデルを仮定し、環境撹乱は2つの確率(撹乱発生確率と撹乱の広がる確率)によって制御する。シミュレーションを主としたモデル解析を行った。<br><br>まず、個体ベース格子モデル解析したところ、撹乱の大きいほどL戦略が有利となり、リスク回避と一致する結果となった。<br>次に、アリのコロニーダイナミクスに着目し、アリの巣の大きさによってアリの分巣タイミングや巣の生存率が決まるとした(コロニーベース格子モデル)。分散の際、S戦略は一対一に分巣するが、L戦略では分散するコロニーサイズは非常に小さいとした。<br><br>結果は、死亡率が巣サイズに強く影響している時や中程度の攪乱の場合にS戦略が進化しやすくなり、放浪種の特徴を上手く説明している。また、分巣タイミングを早くしたり、巣の成長速度を遅くしたり、巣が込み合うことによる悪影響があまり無い時にもS戦略が有利となった。また、数理モデル解析によっても、撹乱下でコロニーダイナミクスが各戦略の有利性に影響する事も示したい。<br><br>以上により、このアリの行動の進化では空間構造や攪乱規模の影響だけではなく、コロニーサイズのダイナミクスも考慮に入れる事が重要であると言える。

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  • 格子上の集団における協力の進化

    中丸 麻由子, 松田 裕之, 巌佐 庸

    物性研究   67 ( 3 )   257 - 285   1996

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal)   Publisher:物性研究刊行会  

    格子構造をもつ生息地における協力の進化を調べた。各個体は近隣の他個体とだけ相互作用をする。初期集団ではしっぺ返し(Tit-for-Tat(TFT)、協力的な戦略)と全面裏切り(All-Defect(AD)、非協力的な戦略)が格子上にランダムに並んでいる。それぞれの戦略は最も近くの格子点にいる戦略と反復囚人のジレンマゲームをする。そして総得点によって死亡率が決まる。ある個体が死亡すると、格子点は空になるが、その後はすぐに隣からランダムに選んだ個体のコピーが埋める。モデルは1次元と2次元格子で行ない、平均場近似とペア近似という2種類の数理解析とコンピュータシミュレーションによって解析し、完全混合モデルと比較した。結果は次のようになった。(1)1次元モデルでは、戦略はクラスターを形成する。反復確率wが増加すると、しっぺ返しのクラスターが広がりやすくなる。しっぺ返しが増える条件は、平均場近似による予測では大きくずれるが、ペア近似によって正確に予測できる。(2)wが十分に大きければ、しっぺ返しは全面裏切りが圧倒的多数を占める集団に侵入し広がることができる。これは完全混合モデルとは違っている。完全混合モデルはどんなwの値でも全面裏切りが常に進化的に安定であり、たとえwが十分大きくても協力的な戦略であるしっぺ返しは侵入できない。つまり、格子構造があれば非協力的な社会が協力の社会に変わりやすくなるのだ。またこの結果はランダムウォークによる侵入確率の解析によっても確かめることができる。(3)2次元モデルは1次元モデルと完全混合モデルの中間の振る舞いをする。(4)空間構造によって2つの面で協力の進化の仕方がかわる。1つ目は空間構造があるときは協力同士が固まりやすくなるので、協力の進化が促進される。が、2つ目は、隣の個体を殺してその後の空き地に自分のコピーを入り込ませようとするような嫌がらせが有利になるために協力が進化しにくくなることである。

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    Other Link: http://dl.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/10938343

Awards

  • 環境科学会誌論文賞

    2001  

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    受賞論文:中丸麻由子・巌佐 庸・中西準子、2001 年、「DDT の生態リスク評価:生物濃縮がもたらすセグロカモメ集団の絶滅リスクの試算」、『環境科学会誌』Vol. 14 (1)、61-72

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Research Projects

  • プラットフォームを介したP2P取引における評判の信頼性と嘘の理論モデル解析と調査

    Grant number:21K01626  2021.4 - 2026.3

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業  基盤研究(C)

    中丸 麻由子, 辻本 将晴

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    Grant amount:\4160000 ( Direct Cost: \3200000 、 Indirect Cost:\960000 )

    まずはプラットフォーム(PF)を介したP2P取引と嘘の情報に関するエージェントベースモデルを構築することが主眼である。R3年度はまずは基礎固めのエージェントベースモデルを構築した。そのモデルでは、あえてプラットフォームは入れずに、人々のネットワーク構造が嘘の噂の広がりと協力の進化にどのように影響を与えるのかについてのエージェントベースモデルを構築し、それをプログラミングをして、モンテカルロシミュレーションを行なっている。社会ネットワークとしては、ランダムなもの、格子のようなネットワーク、スケールフリーネットワークである。ただいま、シミュレーションを行なって結果を整理している。
    ネットワーク上の相互作用において、ネットワークを繋いだり切ったりすることはPFを介したP2P取引でも生じている。このモデルについてもまずはPFをあえて入れずに、人々の社会的ネットワークにおけるリンクの切り貼りと協力の進化に関するエージェントベースモデルを構築し、シミュレーションを行なっている。また、共同研究者を中心にして人を被験者とする実験も行い、実験結果をシミュレーションが説明できていることもわかった。
    PF上で商品などを取引する際に人々は商品のさまざまな属性を見て商品を選ぶ。属性としては値段、品質、見た目などさまざまあり、これを多属性という。人によって着目する属性も異なるし、選ぶときの判断基準も異なる。R3年度はこのような多属性意思決定を一人ではなくて集団で行う際についてのシミュレーション研究を行なった。結果もほぼ揃いつつあり、論文執筆を始める予定である。

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  • Theoretical and Experimental Research on Money and Market System in the Pacific Island Countries

    Grant number:18H03641  2018.4 - 2023.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

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    Grant amount:\43810000 ( Direct Cost: \33700000 、 Indirect Cost:\10110000 )

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  • A new synthesis through the concept of interaction between different levels of the biological hierarchy

    Grant number:15H04425  2015.4 - 2018.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    TSUJI Mizuki

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    Grant amount:\18070000 ( Direct Cost: \13900000 、 Indirect Cost:\4170000 )

    We addressed questions on interaction between different levels of the biological hierarchy in order to integrate micro and macro ecologies. We especially focused on the relationship between intra-specific dynamics, such as kin selection and sexual selection, and inter-specific dynamics, such as host-parasite dynamics and model-mimic dynamics, in the community through theoretical and empirical approaches. We empirically showed examples (though some are yet potential) of such adaptive dynamics in ants, clonal plants, butterflies, fish and other systems.

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  • Theoretical and experimental studies about sustainable usege of commons from the viewpoint of rules and spatial structure

    Grant number:26440236  2014.4 - 2020.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    Nakamaru Mayuko

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    Grant amount:\5070000 ( Direct Cost: \3900000 、 Indirect Cost:\1170000 )

    People have made various rules for sustainable usage of ecological resources or commons. Following are the project's outcomes; (i) the effect of All-for-One system, in which all members contribute the commons and one of them use it in rotation or by lottery, on the sustainable usage was investigated. (ii) whether local knowledge for sustainable usage of commons is effective or not was investigated theoretically, using the example of bird' nest which luxury Chinese soup is made from.(iii) whether spatial structure and social relationship among neighbors prevents the abandonment in the rice paddy field was investigated.

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  • Mechanism Design in Economies with Externalities: Theory and Experiments

    Grant number:26285045  2014.4 - 2019.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    Takehiko Yamato

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    Grant amount:\15730000 ( Direct Cost: \12100000 、 Indirect Cost:\3630000 )

    Regarding mechanism design in economies with externalities, we show whether the efficient grand coalition is formed depends crucially on bargaining and transaction costs when agents take farsighted behavior. In addition, in the case in which there are agents who feel responsible for achieving socially desirable allocations as observed in recent economic experiments, we identify the class of social choice rules by outcome mechanisms in which each agent reports an outcome only. Moreover, we observe in our experiments that for a mechanism to be formed and maintained repeatedly, it is important to introduce a voting process to select participants in the mechanism based on past information, but punishment rules on non-contributors may not work well.

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  • Adaptation Theory of Empathy

    Grant number:25118006  2013.6 - 2018.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas (Research in a proposed research area)

    Ohtsuki Hisashi, NAKAMARU Mayuko

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    Grant amount:\59150000 ( Direct Cost: \45500000 、 Indirect Cost:\13650000 )

    Negative emotional contagion, which means the contagion of negative emotions such as fear or pain between individuals, can evolve by natural selection if those individuals share similar environments. In contrast, the effect of their genetic similarity on its evolution is marginal. I have also obtained a theoretical prediction that the evolution of emotional contagion should have occurred before the expansion of group size in group-living animals. Reciprocal cooperation based on positive empathy, such as “I will cooperate with a third party because I received help from someone”, can evolve only if such a positive emotional state lasts for a limited period of time. Human conformity sometimes undermines the quality of collective intelligence of a group, but it can promote cooperation.

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  • Cognitive and ecological basis of collective intelligence

    Grant number:25245063  2013.4 - 2016.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

    Kameda Tatsuya, NAKAMARU Mayuko, TAKAHASHI Nobuyuki, INUKAI Keigo

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    Grant amount:\24700000 ( Direct Cost: \19000000 、 Indirect Cost:\5700000 )

    This study examined how "collective intelligence" emerges in human groups, by conceptually linking it to "swarm intelligence" by social insects -- the macro phenomenon that has attracted considerable attention in biology and informatics. By collaborating researchers of ants, we experimentally examined information search behavior by 40 colonies of ants (each with about 200 individuals) as well as 40 human groups ((each with about 200 individuals). Results showed that, compared to ant colonies, human groups exhibited greater frequency-dependent conformity bias, which decreased their plasticity in response to changes in adaptive environment.

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  • 認知能力と学習についての進化モデルの構築

    Grant number:25101703  2013.4 - 2015.3

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業  新学術領域研究(研究領域提案型)

    中丸 麻由子

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    Grant amount:\2470000 ( Direct Cost: \1900000 、 Indirect Cost:\570000 )

    前年度に構築した記憶と累積的文化(文化を修正してレベルを高める)の個体群モデルをもとにして、進化的侵入性解析を数学的に行い、記憶能力(特に、保持と想起に着目)と学習能力の進化ダイナミクスの解析を行った。進化的侵入性解析では1形質の進化しか解析する事が出来ない。そこで進化シミュレーションも行い、記憶(保持と想起)と学習能力の共進化を検証した。
    結果は以下のとおりである。(1)累積的文化が無い状況では、社会学習コスト(模倣コスト)が低い場合には、記憶能力(保持と想起)は進化せず、忘却と学習の繰り返しのほうが適応的になっている事をしめした。(2)累積的文化があると、社会学習コストによらず、記憶能力は進化する事をしめした。
    この研究を英文原著論文として仕上げ、国際雑誌へ投稿し、ただいま査読中である。
    今後は、この研究を発展させ、環境変動下における記憶能力の進化に関するシミュレーションを行う予定である。

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  • The effect of institutions and norms on sustainability of ecosystem

    Grant number:21770016  2009.4 - 2014.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

    NAKAMARU Mayuko

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    Grant amount:\5441867 ( Direct Cost: \4186052 、 Indirect Cost:\1255815 )

    Cooperation is a key to maintain ecosystem as commons. However, people do not always cooperate because of the cost of cooperation. Punishment to non-cooperators is said to promote cooperation, but punishment is also costly. Here we investigated how people punish others according to others' cooperation level by evolutionary simulations. I also investigated the evolutionary condition that cooperation is sustainable when people invest their efforts to commons simultaneously and one of then can receive a benefit from commons by rotation by evolutionary simulations.
    Terrace rice fields in Japan should be sustainable as Japan's cultural heritages and I decided to make a mathematical and simulation model to investigate what kinds rules and customs maintain terrace rice fields. It is still an ongoing work and I will show you what makes terrace rice field sustainable in a future topic.

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  • Integration of sociobiology and community ecology by life history strategy theory : widely focusing on invasive ants, clonal plants and corals

    Grant number:21247006  2009 - 2011

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

    TSUJI Mizuki, TATSUTA Haruki, NAKAMARU Mayuko, KUBOTA Yasuhiro, SAKAI Kazuhiko, SUZUKI Jun-ichiro, MATSUURA Kenji, TAKADA Takenori

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    Grant amount:\44980000 ( Direct Cost: \34600000 、 Indirect Cost:\10380000 )

    Ants, termites, clonal plants and corals are key taxa for conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. They share the characteristic, i. e. superorganisms of spatially fixed life. We tried to integrate sociobiology and community ecology of those taxa by focusing on how those organisms are adapted to environmental disturbances. Such an approach is important both in purely scientifically and applied perspectives(such as controlling biological invasion). We noticed a trade off between offspring size and migration distance(trade off related to the resource partitioning). We theoretically predicted the adaptive life history patterns under various disturbance regimes. To generalize the idea we used a matrix model of life history evolution in addition to spatially explicit simulation models. We also focused on different types of competition(interference or exploitative). We have obtained some seemingly general predictions that are going to be tested in ants, termites, plants and corals. Two international symposia were held in Japan related to this topic.

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  • Production and dissemination of a new technology and a patent-a game theoretic approach

    Grant number:20310086  2008 - 2011

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    MUTO Shigeo, YAMATO Takehiko, WATANABE Naoki, NAKAMARU Mayuko

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    Grant amount:\19500000 ( Direct Cost: \15000000 、 Indirect Cost:\4500000 )

    We propose a cooperative game model of licensing that explicitly takes into account the negotiation between the licensor and possible licensees. Using this model, we study a mechanism that could avoid the "patent thicket" and the "tragedy of anti-commons" in licensing new technologies. We examine the validity of the mechanism thorough experiments and computer simulations.

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  • Group Behavior and Social Norms

    Grant number:19046006  2007 - 2012

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Priority Areas

    KAMEDA Tatsuya, TAKAHASHI Nobuyuki, NAKAMARU Mayuko, JIN Nobuhito

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    Grant amount:\55200000 ( Direct Cost: \55200000 )

    This study aimed to investigate (1) the emotional and cognitive system underlying social norms, and (2) adaptive foundations of large-scale cooperation (often called generalized reciprocity or exchange) that characterizes human groups. By combining evolutionary game modeling with behavioral, cognitive, physiological and brain-imaging experiments, we examined roles of cognitive control of emotions in empathy, neural correlates of distributive justice, functions of group membership in aintenance of generalized exchange systems.

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  • Multi-Layer Approach to Participatory Consensus Building Mechanisms as Foundation of Societies

    Grant number:19310097  2007 - 2010

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    INOHARA Takehiro, KIJIMA Kyoichi, DEGUCHI Hiroshi, IMADA Takatoshi, KUWAKO Toshio, KANIE Norichika, KANEKO Hironao, NAKAMARU Mayuko

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    Grant amount:\18980000 ( Direct Cost: \14600000 、 Indirect Cost:\4380000 )

    This research project has generated fundamentals of the knowledge structure on the theory, the methods, and the practices of participatory consensus building mechanism. Specifically, the following three achievements have been obtained :
    (1) a mechanism which generates cooperation of rational agents in a group has been revealed through computer simulations ;
    (2) some properties of consensus and consensus building on achievability and vulnerability have been summarized and visualized ;
    (3) a model for supporting consensus building has been constructed.

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  • 社会科学における実験研究の可能性

    Grant number:18633002  2006

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業  基盤研究(C)

    西條 辰義, 山岸 俊男, 亀田 達也, 西村 直子, 大和 毅彦, 中丸 麻由子

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    Grant amount:\3400000 ( Direct Cost: \3400000 )

    本研究の目的は,社会科学における実験研究の位置付け,その可能性を探り,特定領域研究応募の準備をすることである.このために,以下の会合を重ねた.
    第1回(2006年4月27日):互いに自己の研究分野の課題を提供し,何が問題になっているのかを中心に議論を重ね,各分野で何が共通しているのか,何が異なっているのかに関する討論.なお,経済学・心理学の研究者が中心(市場班,集団班,文化班が中心).
    第2回(2006年5月28日):第1回の議論で欠けている部門・分野に関して議論.とりわけ,経済学・社会学・心理学に共通する分野として,社会関係資本の重要性を認識.
    第3回(2006年6月24日):市場班,集団班,文化班,社会班に加えて,組織における人間行動,政治制度の役割とインセンティブにかかわる議論を集中的に行い,組織班,政治班の役割と他班との関係を議論.
    第4回(2006年9月8日):経済学的な狭い意味での意思決定の理論を目指すのではなく,社会科学の基盤となる意思決定の役割を議論し,意思決定班の重要性を認識.
    第5回(2006年9月29〜30日):各班の連携と共に各分野の根幹を問う議論(参加者:西候・山岸・亀田).
    第6回(2006年10月7日):ほぼ全領域の班の代表者が集合し,理論との関わり合いに関し議論.
    また2006年9月8日には、北大COE・阪大科研シンポジウム「社会科学における実験研究の可能性」を国際文化会館において開催し、社会科学における実験研究の成果についての紹介を行った.さらには,2月10-12日かけてEconomic Science Association(実験研究を主体とする国際学会)のAsia-Pacific Meetingの開催もサポートした.
    これらの討議を経て,「実験社会科学:実験が切り開く21世紀の社会科学」をタイトルとする特定領域研究に応募することとなった.

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  • 空間生態学の展開:空間ネットワーク構造上の生物相互作用進化の理論的研究

    Grant number:17770014  2005 - 2007

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業  若手研究(B)

    中丸 麻由子

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    Grant amount:\3500000 ( Direct Cost: \3500000 )

    【1】格子モデル上での協力レベルの進化と罰反応関数の進化について:オーストリア、IIASAのUlfDieckmann博士との共同研究内容では、Adaptive dynamicsという数学的手法やコンピュータシミュレーションを用いて協力レベルや罰レベル、罰の反応関数を仮定し、罰行動によって協力レベルは進化の結果上昇するかについて調べた。格子モデルによっても協力レベルが上昇することは知られていたが、非協力者への罰によっても協力レベルが進化して上昇する事を示し、その時の最適な罰反応関数も求めた。論文はほぼ執筆も終わり、投稿直前である。
    また、格子上での、ある更新ルール下での個体密度と進化ダイナミクスの関係性についても研究を行い、学会発表などを行った。論文投稿準備中である。
    【2】コロニーベースモデル:アリの生活史を題材にし、コロニー単位の動態に着目してヽ環境撹乱下でのコロニーの分割比や分散距離のトレードオフの進化について研究をまとめ、Jouranl of theoreticalbiologyにて掲載された。また、空間構造の無い場合のモデルとして行列推移モデルを用い、環境撹乱下のコロニー分割比と分割タイミングに関して研究を行い、研究結果をまとめている最中である。そして空間構造がコロニーダイナミクスへ及ぼす影響についても結果がまとまりつつあり、投稿準備中である。
    【3】様々な空間ネットワーク構造と生物相互作用の進化:空間ネットワーク上を伝播する情報が社会的相互作用の進化への及ぼす影響についての理論的研究については、今年度検討した結果が思わしくなく、別のモデル構築が必要であることが分かった。

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  • Designing Institutions to Cope with Global Warming : Theory and Experiments

    Grant number:15310023  2003 - 2006

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    YAMATO Takehiko, SAIJO Tatsuyoshi, MUTO Shigeo, KANIE Norichika, NAKAMARU Mayuko

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    Grant amount:\15800000 ( Direct Cost: \15800000 )

    The Global Warming problem is one of most important issues we have to cope with. In this research project, we have studied how to design institutions to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) effectively and fairly by using various methods based on mico-economic theory, experimental economics, international relations, game theory, and social simulation.
    The Kyoto Protocol authorizes emissions trading as one of mechanisms in order to implement national emission targets for GHGs. The goal of the Protocol could be achieved efficiently if GHGs emissions permits were traded at the competitive equilibrium price. However, the Protocol specifies emissions trading must be supplement to domestic actions in reducing GHGs emissions. We have examined this supplementarity issue in emissions trading and showed that when both demanders and suppliers for emissions permits can set quantity restraints in trading, the situation in which no country uses emission trading is an equilibrium.
    By using the economic experimental method, we have also analyzed how uncertainty in investment for reducing GHGs affects market efficiency, the comparison between emissions trading and carbon taxes, buyer's liability and sellers liability in emissions trading, and the optimality of upstream GHGs emissions trading to achieve the goal of the Kyoto Protocol.
    Moreover, we have studied how to design mechanisms for the efficient provision of public goods such as reducing GHGs, taking account of participants' incentives. If it is optimal for each agent to behave honestly, not to tell a lie, regardless of how the other agents behave, then such a mechanism is called strategy-proof. We have re-examined strategy-proof mechanisms in both theoretical and experimental points of view

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  • 保全生物学での利害対立を捉えるための生態リスク・ベネフィット解析の推定方法の確立

    Grant number:14740418  2002 - 2004

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業  若手研究(B)

    中丸 麻由子

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    Grant amount:\3100000 ( Direct Cost: \3100000 )

    保全生物学で必ず壁として立ちはだかる「生態系保全か経済利益(あるいは健康被害予防)か」という対立を捉えていくための評価方法の一つとして「生態リスク・ベネフィット解析」の推定方法を確立させることが本研究課題の最終目的である。具体的な例としてDDTによる生態系被害とマラリア予防を考えている。
    1,この研究費の交付期間中(H14-H16)にDDTの生態リスク解析の論文2本が雑誌に掲載された。H16年度ではこの成果を生態リスク・ベネフィット解析へ応用したが、生態リスク評価では有効であった「リスク当量」を生態リスク・ベネフィット解析にそのまま使用不可能である事が判明し、「絶滅確率」を用いることにした。1集団に2種以上鳥類がいる場合や、2集団を考えるときなどに、各種や各集団の絶滅確率を単に足すのがよいのか、それとも他の方法が良いかどうか整理する必要がある、という問題点も浮上した。
    2,生態リスク・ベネフィット解析のためにはDDTの代替品を考え、代替品に変えた時の生態リスクの増加と経済コストの増加を計算している。まずは代替品に関する文献調査を行ってきた。WWFやWHOはピレスロイド(合成除虫菊)入りの蚊帳を推奨しているため、これに関する経済費用に関するデータを収集した。また、ピレスロイドは水系生物以外では被害がないと言われているため、プレスロイド入り蚊帳をDDTの代替品の一つとした。一方で蚊帳は人の活動範囲を狭めるなどの欠点もあるため、代替案としてハマダラカの発生を防ぐための河川工事にかかる費用も考えた。
    3,今まで収集したデータを元に経済便益分析を行い、生態リスク・ベネフィット解析を行っている。データ不足や(1で説明したように)絶滅リスクの取り扱いに関する問題点も浮上し、国際雑誌への投稿はまだである。16年度で交付期間は終了するが、研究を続ける予定である。

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  • 安定な野生生物集団が外的要因に攪乱された時の絶滅リスク評価方法について

    Grant number:13740439  2001

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業  奨励研究(A)

    中丸 麻由子

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    Grant amount:\1200000 ( Direct Cost: \1200000 )

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